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          IT 行业三大定律
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        <h1 id="IT 行业三大定律"><a href="#IT 行业三大定律" class="headerlink" title="IT 行业三大定律"></a>IT 行业三大定律 </h1><span id="more"></span>

<h3 id="一、摩尔定律"><a href="# 一、摩尔定律" class="headerlink" title="一、摩尔定律"></a> 一、摩尔定律 </h3><p><img data-src="/archives/ec1824d4/20180307134142303" alt="img"></p>
<p>​    相比汽车工业等传统行业，计算机行业的发展速度则快很多。早在 1965 年，英特尔公司创始人戈登 - 摩尔（Gordon Moore）博士就提出，在至多 10 年内，集成电路的集成度会每两年翻一番。</p>
<p>​     后来果然如此。并且大家把这个周期缩短至 18 个月。现在，每 18 个月，计算机等 IT 产品的性能会翻一番。或者说相同性能的计算机等 IT 产品，每隔 18 个月价钱就会降一半。</p>
<p>​    虽然这个发展速度是令人难以置信的，但是几十年来，IT 产业的发展始终遵循着摩尔定律预测的速度。</p>
<p>​    1945 年，世界上第一台电子计算机 ENIAC 的速度是能够在 1 秒钟完成 5000 次定点的加减法运算。</p>
<p>​     2007 年，当时搭载英特尔酷睿芯片的个人电脑计算速度为每秒 500 亿次浮点运算，已经是 ENIAC 的 1000 万倍。</p>
<p>​     2007 年世界上最快的计算机 IBM 的蓝色基因（BlueGene/L）速度高达每秒钟 367 万亿次浮点运算，是 ENIAC 的 734 亿倍，正好是每 20 个月翻一番，和摩尔定律的预测大致相同。</p>
<p>​     2010 年 11 月，世界上最快的计算机是中国的天河 1A，计算速度高达每秒 2570 万亿次。仅仅 3 年，又比 IBM 的蓝色基因记录提高了 70 倍。</p>
<p>​     计算机速度的提高如此，存储容量的提升更快，大约每 15 个月就会翻一番。</p>
<p>​     多年来人们一直怀疑摩尔定律能够适用多少年，不过至今为止，摩尔定律依旧适用。</p>
<p>​     摩尔定律主导着 IT 产业的发展，为了使摩尔定律能够成立，IT 公司必须在较短的时间内完成下一代产品的研发。</p>
<p>​    由于硬件的快速发展，带动了各种各样的软件应用的研发。比如视频影音播放器，浏览器，网络游戏等。当硬件没发展起来的时候，你是无论如何也想不到会诞生这样只做软件的公司。</p>
<p>​    摩尔定律也使得各个公司现在的研发必须针对多年后的市场，比如再过 10 年，你能想象到我们的网速会达到 1000Mbps 级别，这时候在这种环境下又会诞生什么样的新产品，或者新的以前无法实现的网络服务，这些都值得我们去思考。</p>
<h3 id="二、安迪 - 比尔定律"><a href="# 二、安迪 - 比尔定律" class="headerlink" title="二、安迪 - 比尔定律"></a> 二、安迪 - 比尔定律 </h3><p><img data-src="/archives/ec1824d4/20180307134203310" alt="img"></p>
<p>​    摩尔定律会让消费者觉得如果今天我买不起这台计算机，我可以等 18 个月后以一半的价格来买到它。只能说你太天真，要真是这样的话，那硬件厂商出货量只会逐年减少，但事实并不是这样。</p>
<p>​    事实上，在过去的 20 年里，个人 PC 的销量在持续增长。是什么动力让用户主动更新自己的硬件呢？</p>
<p>​    其实是因为存在安迪 - 比尔定律，即比尔要拿走安迪所给的。</p>
<p>​    比尔即大家熟知的比尔 - 盖茨，安迪是原 Iintel 公司 CEO 安迪 - 杰罗夫。在过去 30 年里 Intel 处理器的速度每 18 个月翻一番，计算机内存和硬盘的容量以更快的速度在增长。</p>
<p>​    计算机的速度越来越快，但是我们运行软件的感觉和过去却是差不多的。这是因为整个 PC 的操作系统和应用软件越做越大，越来越复杂。每次更新之后软件功能可能比之前要强大一点，但是背后的安装包也越来越大。</p>
<p>​    以至于当你用着旧的 PC 更新了最新的软件后，运行软件有可能就会比较卡。因此你也就不得不换新机了。微软的操作系统以及各种 PC 应用软件吃掉了硬件快速发展带来的红利，因为软件的功能和它越来越臃肿的体积并不是成正比的。</p>
<p>​    所以每当微软更新了它的操作系统或者大型软件后，Intel 的销量和股价会明显提升，这也是 PC 时代软件和硬件的霸主互相制约和平衡的一个重要因素。所以 PC 时代也被称为 WINTEL 时代。</p>
<h3 id="三、反摩尔定律"><a href="# 三、反摩尔定律" class="headerlink" title="三、反摩尔定律"></a> 三、反摩尔定律 </h3><p>​    Google 的前 CEO 埃里克 - 施密特（Eric Schmidt）在一次采访中指出，如果你反着来看摩尔定律，一个 IT 公司如果今天和 18 个月前卖掉同样多的，同样的产品，那么它的营业额就要降低一半。因为产品的价格只有 18 个月前的一半了。</p>
<p>​    这对 IT 公司是非常可怕的，意思是如果你这 18 个月不能取得产品上的突破，那么你的营业额将会损失惨重。因此这条定律也逼着所有的硬件公司研发新产品的速度要跟上摩尔定律的速度。</p>
<p>​    大多数做硬件的公司，如 intel，AMD，戴尔，太阳，摩托罗拉其实过得很辛苦，因为要投入巨额的研发费用来跟上摩尔定律的步伐，不然就会被市场淘汰。</p>
<p>​    相反业务主要集中在软件业的 IBM，微软则获得了高额的利润，股价也在大多数时间飘红。</p>
<p>​    在科技进步的浪潮中，小的新兴的公司往往是无法与大公司相竞争的。但是他们不用考虑摩尔定律，反倒没有太多的压力，如果能够研发出革命性的新技术，或许能够获得巨大的成功。</p>
<p>​    比如上世纪 90 年代出现的 DSL 技术，可以将电话线上的数据传输速度提升近 200 倍。而其创始人依靠这一技术，将公司以 4 亿美元的高价卖给了德州仪器（TI）。在调制解调器发展的量变阶段，这种小公司很难存活，但是一旦掌握了技术的质变，就有可能在 IT 发展的浪潮中占得一席之地。</p>
<p>​    反摩尔定律使得新兴的小公司在新技术的研发上有可能与大公司站在同一起跑线上。不断给整个产业注入新的活力。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>  IT 产业是一个不进则退的产业，想要获得高额的利润就要做处于产业上游的软件服务，如 Google,Facebook。处于下游的硬件公司则由于摩尔定律的影响长长是处于薄利多销的状态。如 Intel，AMD。唯一例外的是苹果公司，由于苹果的产品已经是一种潮流和艺术的象征，所以其能够拿到比较高的品牌溢价，也无怪于整个手机市场的利润 91% 都是苹果的。</p>
</blockquote>
<p> 本文转自 <a target="_blank" rel="external nofollow noopener noreferrer" href="https://blog.csdn.net/zuochao_2013/article/details/79469877">https://blog.csdn.net/zuochao_2013/article/details/79469877</a></p>

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